Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is open following a ceasefire deal linked to Lebanon. Trump said Saturday that a deal to end the war could come soon but provided no clear timeline. Prediction markets now price a 44% probability that U.S. oil will exceed $100 per barrel this month if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again. Trump addressed the situation from the Oval Office, stating, "Iran got a little cute… they wanted to close up the strait again… they can't blackmail us."
Ship tracking data shows five LNG vessels from Ras Laffan in Qatar—Al Ghashamiya, Lebrethah, Fuwairit, Rasheeda, and Disha—moving toward the Strait of Hormuz. If these vessels pass through, they will mark the first LNG shipments across the strait since the war started on February 28. The first four are controlled by QatarEnergy, while Disha is chartered by Petronet from India. Before the conflict, the strait handled approximately one-fifth of global LNG trade. Qatar holds the position of second-largest LNG exporter, but Iranian strikes cut 17% of its export capacity.
Global onshore crude inventories dropped about 45 million barrels during April alone, with outages reaching around 12 million barrels per day since late March. Heavy crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq require four to five months to return to normal output levels, pushing supply tightness into summer. Damage to refineries and the Ras Laffan LNG complex adds further delays, with repairs expected to remove 12.8 million metric tons per year from supply for three to five years. Full recovery of regional energy systems could take years.